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« Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » Weather Outlook: 'Oh, My'By Admin 
The U.S. National Weather Service long-range forecasts through February have this to say about the various regions of the United States:The Northeast and California have an equal chance for above-normal, normal, and below-normal temperatures and precipitation. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies should look for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. The Southeast can expect below-normal temps, and an equal chance for above-normal, normal, and below-normal precipitation. The Midwest? Above-normal temps, and equal chance for above-normal, normal, and below-normal precipitation. The Southern Rockies should see above-normal temps, and equal chance for above-normal, normal, and below-normal precipitation. Forecasters from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society predict temperatures in the major alpine nations of Europe have a slight chance to be above-normal during December, January, and February. That includes the alpine regions of Austria, France, Italy, and Switzerland. Precipitation is projected to be below-normal across much of Europe, except Germany, which has a slight chance of higher than normal precipitation. Jeremy Davis, senior meteorologist with Weather Routing Inc., questions the wisdom of over-reliance on long-range forecasts, telling The IR "Whether you have snow or rain depends on when the precipitation falls. It can be warm and dry, or cold and precipitating. The long-range forecasts missed the cold snap in January, and the rainy June." There are other sources for prognostication or, some say, myths. They can be just as accurate. Or not. The Old Farmer's Almanac, for example, breaks down North America into 12 zones, with detailed long-range forecasts for each. Here's the Almanac's Northeast United State speculation, for example: "Winter will be colder than normal, on average, especially north of the Chesapeake Bay. The coldest periods will occur in early to mid- and late January and mid-February. While precipitation will be below normal, slightly above-normal snowfall will occur in many parts of the region. Watch for snow around Thanksgiving, with other snowy periods in mid-January and mid- and late February." How do they make their predictions? It's a better kept secret than Col. Sanders' original recipe. Other means have been used to predict long-range weather, including the abundance of acorns, thickness of hair on woolly bear caterpillars, timing of geese flying south, and the urgency with which beavers lay in branches for winter. « Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » Comments
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Posted by: Jim Ryan | September 21, 2009 09:40 AM
