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« Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » Economic Outlook: Cloudy, But Periods Of SunshineBy Admin 
There is some good news and it's perhaps getting better. Gas is plentiful right now and sells for about $1.30 less per gallon than last year. Unemployment in the population segment making up the skier/snowboarder core (i.e., people with a bachelor's degree or higher) is at 4.7 percent and improving. The stock market has bounced back some 35 percent since it hit its low in March. Inflation is flat, and interest rates are near all-time lows. The flip side is easy to spot, too. The current recession whacked a whopping $14 trillion off household net worth, about one-third of the U.S. total. Mostly paper value, perhaps, but that is what the U.S. economy runs on. The entire American financial system was skiing out of bounds, bringing world markets along behind. 
People are still anxious, despite the fact massive infusion of capital by the U.S. government appears to have nudged the runaway economy away from the brink, at least to some degree. That's part of the reason for some of the angst. Another is the march of America from creditor to debtor status vis-à-vis the rest of the world, a trend that bodes badly for the future, as the U.S. economy drives global markets. The European Commission, meanwhile, is looking for a return of economic growth in the third quarter of 2009, but that uptick is projected to be small. Joaquin Almunia, EU monetary affairs commissioner, has said stronger world trade, low interest rates, and more available cash all are easing the recession. The London FTSE 100 hit a recent low of 3,512 on March 3, 2009, but climbed to above 5,000 last week. The Dow has moved up since its March 9 low of 6,547 to a high of more than 9,700 points last week. Analysts suggest it will hang up there until earnings improve. Unemployment is slowing, but remains high. U.S. total unemployment climbed from a recent low of 4.4 percent in March 2007 to 9.7 percent in August. Jobless rates in the EU rose from 6.7 percent in March 2008 to 9.5 percent in August. Consumer confidence remains low, even if rising. Americans were grim about personal finances with just 16 percent reporting their finances had improved. That's the fewest since the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers began in 1946. Practitioners of the "dismal science" of economics see the whiplash in financial markets from irrational exuberance to irrational despair easily spilling over into mountain travel. Consumers fear big spending, but still want to restore their spirits. The likely result based upon that assumption: A repeat of last winter's trend of shorter distances, shorter lead times, and more budget-conscious decisions. It may be comforting to think back to the 1972-73 season if you are old enough to remember it. Veteran area operators and marketers most certainly will recall it with a grimace. Unemployment was over 11 percent. Inflation was so out of hand, and the Middle East flat-out shut off the gas spigot. America was just pulling out of a major conflict and the nation was swimming in red ink. Piling on? Well, it was one of those snow years the industry tries desperately to forget. A survivors guide to winter 2009-10 seems to urge resorts to play to the mindset. Offer excellent value for money and focus on guest service like never before. Make sure skiers and snowboarders go home well satisfied and planning their next visit. « Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » |
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