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NSAA 2009: All About Those Boomers And The Snow In Their Hair

By Roger Leo
May 04, 2009

"For better or worse, our core customers are made up of baby boomers," National Ski Areas Association President Michael Berry told The Industry Report on the eve of the May 13-16, 2009 NSAA National Convention and Trade Show on Marco Island, Fla. "In a few years, we'll see the leading edge baby boomers move past 65 and the likelihood of them participating in significant numbers start to diminish."

Berry said the conference will focus on the aging of the baby boomers and what it means for the ski industry.

The convention follows a winter season that saw about 57 million skier/rider visits, in line with the industry's five-year average, and that sits on the cusp of the aging of the baby boomers into their mid-60s.

"As the baby boomers reached their mid-50s, all we had to do was groom it up better, serve great Alfredo, and make the skis easier to turn, and we did all those things," Berry said.

Dr. Joseph Coughlin, founder and director of MIT's AgeLab and a member of the White House Conference on Aging, will deliver the keynote address Thursday, May 14.

Berry said Coughlin will discuss implications of the aging boomer population, the impact of the reduction of older people's net worth, and how that affects the ski industry.

"Does it impact one segment more than others, alter what people do in retirement? We need to understand that. Once we understand that - and it's a fait accompli, they're going - we have to understand in what fashion they're going to go, maximize our opportunities as they go and, ultimately much more important, once they do go what's the replacement strategy?

"For everyone that exits we need to bring in one-point-five. We've been talking about this for a decade, but it never loses its poignancy; it becomes more poignant as the leading edge baby boomers reach their mid-60s.

"A decade ago we were telling people we need to focus on a couple things, in particular bringing new people to the sport - called trial and conversion, and focusing on retention of our core customers. Over the last decade, we've seen numbers grow 15 percent. We did a wonderful job with existing core customers. We increased the frequency, and have seen revivals coming back.

"Now it's 10 years later and, within four to five years, we're going to have to start replacing them at a significant pace, by bringing in beginners. The conventional wisdom is small mom and pop areas bear that burden, but that's not the case. Beginner traffic is pretty amazingly distributed across the industry, every region, every size resort.

"No one segment of the industry is going to be tasked to this to the benefit of some other segment. Little guys are not going to be tasked while big guys benefit. Everybody's tasked, everybody going to have to do it. That's a lot of what we're going to talk about in Marco," Berry said.

A CEO Summit on Thursday afternoon shows promise of being the convention highlight. NSAA Chairman Rusty Gregory of Mammoth will moderate a panel that includes Peak Resorts' Tim Boyd, Intrawest's Bill Jensen, Aspen's Michael Kaplan, Boyne Resorts' Stephen Kircher, and Vail Resorts' Rob Katz. The CEOs will analyze 2008-09, and peer ahead into the future.

The season that just ended turned out to be average, and better than anticipated given the freefall of the Dow, the collapse of all facets of housing, rising unemployment, fluctuating energy costs, and global economic turmoil.

"Going into this season, we said, 'Be reasonably optimistic; if it snows, we're going to have good numbers.' The way the numbers shook out, even at destination resorts, there are some that are going to have a pretty good story to tell in terms of skier numbers. Some in the Northeast set records on records."

Berry said the season is winding up at about 57 million skier visits, off from last year's record 60.5 million visits, but close to the five-year average.

"This year, quite honestly, compare us with other vacation alternatives, our numbers hold up quite well against other choices such as cruises, golf, warm weather vacations, any other activity. There are lots of other people out there who would like to be in our position.

"The caveat is what are we seeing for next year, and people are wary. Preliminary trends seem to be positive. If the Dow were to get above 9,000 and stay there and not have an October swoon, we'll see customer confidence go up. Early season pass sales have been very positive. Like everyone we'll be looking at fall season pass sales.

"Again, we'll be looking at weather trends; we'll want to see good strong trends toward winter early. People book later and later; that's been the trend for a decade or more. People want to know it's going to be great when they get there, so with the exception of Christmas week, people are going to hedge until they know the snow is there. We used to be able to establish what the season is going to be like by the first of October; that's not a truism anymore.

"All that said, I don't see any reason to think we'll be different from our five-year average," Berry said.

What It Means: Whether this season's numbers reflect the longstanding belief that it's all about the snow, one thing is certain: In the case of the industry's largest and most loyal demographic, the baby boomers, it's increasingly about the snow in their hair.

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