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« Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » World's Ski Industry Leaders Take On 2009By Craig Altschul 
Here are their responses (in alphabetical order - even we aren't brazen enough to rank world leaders). Tim Boyd, President, Peak Resorts: "Our view going forward is that, with good weather, most of the industry will be fine. Certainly those areas that are tied heavily to the financial markets will be facing some significant credit challenges. However, in our industry, good weather usually trumps everything else." M. Roland Didier, Chairman, Compagnie Des Alpes, France: "As every year, we surveyed all our accommodation providers at the start of the winter to check occupancy levels in over 170,000 beds. The survey found overall rates were down 1.9 percent on December 1 compared to last year. Factors for us include the fact that school holidays are concentrated in a short time frame in February this year. Also, Easter is late rather than in March as last year, the general economic crisis, and we expect less visitors from Britain due to the 25 percent gain of the Euro against the British pound over the past 18 months." Urs Eberhard, Executive Vice President Markets & MICE, Switzerland Tourism: "We believe, while Christmas/New Year will be very strong, that there will be a significant downturn in the second part of the winter. The domestic market will still be holding up and the decrease from the neighbouring markets Germany and France will be moderate. The decrease from other markets, and especially from UK visitors, will be more serious. Overall, we estimate a decrease of 4 to 6 percent compared with the record winter 2007/2008. The economic downturn will have its effects into next too. On the bright side, we have right now excellent snow conditions, actually the best for many years. In Switzerland, ski resorts are situated at a relatively high altitude compared with other Alpine countries, which means better snow and longer downhill runs." Juan Jose Fioranelli, Secretary of Tourism, Villa La Angostura, Argentina: "Cerro Bayo S.A. presented to the Villa La Angostura community a four year, US$25 million remodeling plan for their ski centre. With this new plan, Cerro Bayo and Villa La Angostura will position themselves strongly in the international market as a leading destination winter resort combining world-class skiing with the unique mountain town ambience of Villa La Angostura. Easy access via nearby Bariloche International Airport from Buenos Aires or direct from Sao Paulo, Brazil, is another plus and we look forward to some exciting times." Ralf Garrison, Director, Advisory Group Inc. (MTRiP and Mountian Travel Symposium): 2009 is likely to be a challenging year on several fronts, as market conditions continue to be unfavorable for discretionary spending and leisure travel in particular. Fewer consumers with discretionary funds is resulting in increased competition and pressure on pricing. Last minute discount travelers are getting better deals than loyal guests who booked early and paid retail. This " breach" in customer loyalty is teaching our customers bad habits and unfavorable consequences can be expected to pricing and booking trends in 2009-10. The "elephant in the room" is the economic impact of a softening real estate industry in mountain resort communities who have become economically dependent on the related real estate and construction drivers." Osskar Hinteregger, Director, Austrian Tourist Office, London: "In terms of tourism revenues the winter season, 2007-08 was the best ever for Austria. It will probably be difficult to top this in the short term. However, I believe that the current high levels of investment in new innovative transport technologies - recent examples are the Galzig Cable Car in St. Anton or the first solar energy powered lift in Kitzbueheler Alps - as well as raising the individual customer's skiing or snowboarding experience, will help to maintain the appeal of the sport. A particular effort is certainly required in order to entice young people to winter sports as well as to make sure they remain loyal." David Ingemie, President, SnowSports Industries America: "Our data for this year August through October is showing sales up overall in equipment, apparel, and accessories both in dollars and in units. Our data going back to the 1970s shows that the demographic of snow sports participants has been recession resistant and that the key to whether people will participate is snow. This economic climate is a little bit different than we have experienced in the past as it is really a global issue, so we are keeping a close look at the situation and the data as it develops. My guess is that we will do okay if we have a normal snow year around the country." Bill Jensen, Chief Executive Officer, Intrawest ULC: 2009 will bring a continuation of regionally-focused travel trends over long haul destination trips. Value will be the key operative strategy. The Intrawest marketing team has coined a saying "how many ways can you package free?" The rapid strengthening of the U.S. dollar will encourage increased U.S. travel to Canada, while economically and currency challenged international guest visits will cause the industry to reminisce about international visitation peaks in 2006 and 2007. The 2010 Winter Olympics returning to North America (Vancouver/Whistler) will generate global aspirations for U.S./Canada winter vacations in future years. Good, consistent snow in all regions will buffer some of the economic challenges for the ski industry in 2009, but our guests will be significantly more sensitive with respect to discretionary spending." Scott Kaden, President, Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association: "Despite the Pacific Northwest's slow start, most of our season pass sales and pre-season lesson bookings have tracked with budget projections and operators are sensing pent-up demand. Low fuel costs and a favorable, long-term weather forecast - a weak La Niņa condition in the equatorial Pacific - may help mitigate any additional negative fluctuations in the regional economy. If we are blessed with a steady diet of snow-laden storms, our regional destinations could see a boost as Northwesterners substitute 'rubber tire' regional destinations for the more distant mountains that are air travel-dependent." Rob Katz, CEO, Vail Resorts: "While we cannot say with any certainty at this point in time what impact the macroeconomic environment will have on the ultimate visitation and guest spend for the 2008-2009 ski season, we feel very fortunate to manage a company with world-class assets, a strong balance sheet, and terrific employees. However, there is no doubt that the travel and leisure sector is being, and will continue to be, negatively impacted in the short term; and while we have many attributes that differentiate us from other options guests may have, we are not immune to these negative trends. Since issuing our fiscal 2009 guidance in late September, we have seen a further deterioration in the overall economic fundamentals. In addition, while our season pass sales have been relatively strong, our advanced lodging bookings have not improved. Given our limited visibility on bookings in this environment, it remains too early to discern how much of the decrease is a result of guests delaying their purchases or to estimate the magnitude of an absolute visitation decline for the 2008-09 ski season." Stephen Kircher, President, Boyne Resorts' Eastern Operations: "As a company that has been in this business now for 60 years and at least a half dozen recessions, we believe that ultimately the most important factor in the industry's success is how the snow conditions are - especially in the key peak periods of late December and mid February. We are hopeful this downturn doesn't prove that premise wrong. My gut tells me this is a bit different kind of downturn or, at least, most similar to the mid 1970s. So we will likely see 2009 be off the record pace of the 2007-08 season. I would think with good snow conditions nationally that the 55 million skier visit level is likely. Clearly, with commodity prices falling so sharply and some of the recent pressures from accelerating energy and labor costs subsiding, there are some realistic ways for our industry to soften the impacts on our bottom lines. We remain cautiously optimistic for the new year." Bill Marolt, President and CEO, U.S. Ski and Snowboard Association: "Media coverage and public awareness of skiing and snowboarding will be increasing over the next year with the excitement of a North American Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This event, coupled with the success of the sport's superstars including Lindsey Vonn, Ted Ligety, Bode Miller, Hannah Teter, Seth Westcott, and Shaun White, among others, will heighten enthusiasm. While all of us will continue to be challenged with management through a recession, we're optimistic that grassroots participation in our sports that provide a healthy, active lifestyle, will continue to increase. The fact that skiing and snowboarding are lifelong, family activities is a real positive for our industry." Melanie Mills, President, Colorado Ski Country, USA:"I think we'll see a strong year in 2009 with our local and regional markets with some softness in destination and international markets. The emphasis, as always, will be on top quality guest service, which is even more important when our guests are watching their spending." David Ovendale, General Manager, NZSki Ltd., New Zealand: "Thankfully, historical trends highlighted through SARS, the Iraq war, 9/11, and others, suggest our customers are somewhat more resilient and less risk averse than the average traveler. Not to mention addicted to snow in many cases. This, together with the ability to see the glass as half-full and not half empty on our part, and some smart and targeted marketing spending, may well see us through the challenges that lie ahead. Recent and unprecedented fluctuations in the value of the Australian dollar means that for many Aussies, the annual ski trip in the USA, Japan, or Europe may well become a bridge too far for many and consequently they will turn their winter holiday thoughts to destinations in closer proximity - domestic Australia and New Zealand. Provided we can get our collective marketing act together and make some noise in the face of what is going to be robust domestic Aussie ski area efforts to "keep people at home" this winter, there is a good chance that we will be able to attain market growth despite the climate of doom and gloom we hear about daily." Mathew Prior, Managing Director, Crystal Ski, UK: "We are seeing unprecedented changes in the financial sector and fluctuations in the price of oil as well as huge fluctuations in currency exchange rates, all of which makes for tough conditions. On the positive side, however, these factors stimulate the fittest businesses to constantly assess their operations and cost bases to maintain and enhance their leadership position." Bernard Prud'homme, Director, Chamonix Tourist Office: "Chamonix will inevitably feel the repercussions of the world economic crisis. Our saving grace is doubtless the resort's notoriety and the fact that we attract such a diverse cross-section of visitors due to the multiple facets of this alpine destination. Winter 2009 should be a reasonably correct season even though certain weeks may be more difficult to sell. However, Chamonix is aware that the economic climate will have more serious consequences on the summer 2009 season and the following winter season of 2010. We will need to be extremely dynamic in terms of communication and commercialization if we are to be competitive over the next few seasons. More difficult, but not impossible. Our strap line being: sooner or later you'll come to Chamonix!" Miguel Purcell, Gerente General, Ski Portillo, Chile: "Portillo enjoyed an excellent snow year in 2008, which has increased the debate over the effects of global warming on the ski area. We are totally convinced that our part of the world is warming up. We have watched snow levels rise and glaciers grow smaller. Animals have begun to visit Portillo that normally do not live in the valley at this altitude. Birds are arriving earlier and leaving later. On average, the lake freezes over later in the year and the ice is gone earlier in the spring. The effect on Portillo as a ski area has so far not been important because of the altitude of the skiable terrain. Snow levels at the lower station do not seem to have decreased during the ski season. Average snowfall in Portillo has actually increased in the last 20 years. This would tend to confirm the theory that warmer temperatures will produce more precipitation in this part of the Andes. It is all confusing and, in many ways, contradictory. We consider this to be one of the greatest challenges that we will face in the next 20 years. We are monitoring the situation closely and are doing everything that we can to help reduce the pollution that is producing global warming." Andrew Ramsey, Executive Director, Australian Ski Areas Association: "Planning for 2009 has been somewhat over-shadowed by the financial tsunami approaching our shores courtesy of the sub-prime collapse and on-flows. The real question for us is what disposable income people will have in April or May next year when the decisions about holidays in the Southern Hemisphere winter will be made. The NSAA has expressed a view that the financial meltdown represents an opportunity for domestic visitation in North America. The same could be said for Australia. The revaluation of the Aus dollar and a reduction in fuel cost should being about better value in a domestic snow holiday. For Aussies, cost of an international holiday has certainly gone through the roof, increasing nearly 30 percent from last year just on the value of the dollar alone. 2009 should see an emphasis on the quality of the Australian resort product." Steve Rice, Vice President and Managing Director, CNL Lifestyle Properties, LLC: "Snow conditions will have an overriding influence, but that said, I see three fundamental reasons to be optimistic about ski industry fortunes in 2009 and beyond: First, industry historical data makes clear that skier visits hold up well in recessions, and I expect this downturn - despite its severity - to be no different. Second, record sales of season pass products going into the season at our CNL resorts, combined with strong demand for youth programs and ski/ride school products, provide encouraging anecdotal evidence that youth and families consider our sport a priority for their discretionary spending. Finally, sliding on snow is a fundamental human thrill popular since pre-historic times, in addition to being a healthful outdoor pursuit and means for family and friends to connect - the sport is not going away, provided we continue to find effective ways to attract and retain new entrants." Bob Roberts, Executive Director, California Ski Areas Association: "California and Nevada resort operators are, by nature, a sanguine lot. Historically, good snow has trumped a challenging economic climate. Moreover, 85 percent of our market arrives by automobile. There has been a palpable sense of relief as gasoline looks to be snuggling in at under $2 a gallon for the 2009 winter. That said, the depth of our economic woes has us in unchartered waters. Even the Golden State is feeling the effects of layoffs and market losses. In the end, I suspect that it will be Mother Nature's fickle finger of fate that determines just how full our cup will be. We're bullish." Richard Savage, President, Ski Tops: "We're expecting to see a lot of our hard work pay off. We've taken the approach that the economic downturn has presented us with an opportunity. We've watched our competitors ease off in the marketing department while we've stepped it up to put our message more front and center (using OnTheSnow.com and other online vehicles). We know people will be skiing this winter, so we're confident that when they decide to buy, we'll be there ready to help them with their vacation plans. We've been growing at a staggering pace the last three years in a row. We're not naive to believe we'll double again, but we do think we've positioned ourselves well. At the end of the day, it's all about good snow. When it comes, we'll be ready." Fred Seymour, Chair, Midwest Ski Areas Association: "We are cautiously optimistic in the Midwest. When times are hard, people prefer to ski and snowboard closer to home. Many of our Midwest ski areas saw strong season pass and Thanksgiving sales and we have had good snowmaking conditions. But we're also waiting and wondering what it all means." Jack Turner, President, Snow Monsters/Next Snow Search: "There will be major stress and uncertainty in 2009. Weather is always an issue. The cost of labor, energy, legal issues, and government regulation will make for tough business. But isn't that a description of the ski/snowboard business every year? We sell a product that is expensive, dangerous, inconvenient, and COLD (those are the good points). I am the least qualified person to provide an 'outlook' for the industry in 2009. If I was reasonable, sensible, logical, realistic, and level headed, I wouldn't be in the ski business in the first place. So... I think it's all going to be good." Bernie Weichsel, President, BEWI Sports: "The country will experience an 'Obama Bump' after the inauguration, comprised of a renewed sense of good old-fashioned American 'can do' optimism that will help to revive the economy - at least in the short term. Since the place where that optimism will manifest itself the most is amongst young people and students - Obama's, as well as the snow industry's main constituents. The industry will benefit from that group's sense of optimism and pride in what they helped accomplish - a new direction for our country-and where they will be taking the country in the future." « Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » Comments
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Posted by: Bruce Rosard | December 29, 2008 09:52 PM
