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« Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » An IR In-Depth Report: 'Yikes, It's The Economy' Says Garrison As Mountain Travel Symposium Weighs InBy Craig Altschul 
The Industry Report checked in with Ralf Garrison, a partner in MTS, and director of the Mountain Travel Research program (MTRiP), who will moderate "The Future of the Mountain Travel Industry" general session Wednesday, April 9, 10:15 a.m., at the Vail Cascade Resort & Spa. Corporate sponsor of the session is Mountain News Corp., publishers of this e-letter. The forum continues Thursday. You can still register to attend forum (only) sessions at www.mtntravl.com or at the door. MTS is expecting a record turnout exceeding 1,100 mountain travel suppliers, buyers, and industry leaders for the weeklong event. Garrison says there ought to be a clue in what's going on just by the fact there will be 150 international tour operators on hand in Vail cutting deals with U.S. resorts to send their skiers and riders here. It's all because of what a few in the travel industry have referred to as the "American Peso." He will be teeing up questions at the session on what the mountain travel industry must do in light of the economy, lodging, transportation, and even the pine needle infestations afflicting our forests. Those who will be taking knowledgeable, data-based swings at the topics are at the top of their games. They include travel industry researcher Dr. Peter Yesawich who coined the phrase "time poverty." Philip Wolf is founder and CEO of PhoCusWright, a company specializing in emerging travel technology. Chris Jarnot is COO for Vail Resorts; Myles Rademan is public affairs officer for the town of Park City, Utah; and Bob King is Intrawest's senior VP for marketing and sales. "These are troubled waters out there for the mountain resort industry," Garrison told the IR. "As the Denver Post put it recently, these are times of 'solid uncertainty.' But, I'm optimistic that the industry can find its way because it has a track record of being both resilient and pro-active." Garrison believes we have dodged a bullet so far, thanks to the abundant snowfall of the current ski season, and that has kept core skiers on our mountains. "But to count on that continuing for the short term puts a lot of faith in Mother Nature." The perfect storm brought to us by the post-911 era of cheap credit and the ability to easily borrow from home equity has led to consumers spending more than they bring in, Garrison says. That drove the economy. But, the mountain resort industry is faced with its customers living in a veritable house of cards with home values not appreciating and falling, and credit no longer readily available and certainly not cheap. "There will be real pressure on Americans to search for discounted travel options. They will do this in the face of the short-term effect of what might be referred to as 'global storming' - hotter and colder winters," he told the IR. "The industry is faced with what might be likened to a situational analysis in developing a business plan for the next few years," Garrison explains. "There are simply some things out of our control." He uses the analogy of a sailor out on the water when the wind comes up. The sailor has no direct control of the wind, but survival can often depend on how one manages the boat in the storm. Garrison has an appropriate one-word response to the current economy: "Yikes." The consumer is facing both time and money issues. The mountain travel industry is being sustained by the baby boomers on one end and the "millennials (or "boomlets") on the other. "There's a big gap in between that we have to bring along. The boomers and the boomlets have decidedly different ways they shop for and purchase vacations." There will be no shortage of issues for these panelists to devour. "There's lodging, for one example," Garrison says. "The 'one pillow for every lift ticket' guideline is changing as boomers use the condos they bought for occasional use as retirement homes and have taken them out of the rental pools. Hot beds are going cold from Carmel to Aspen. New condos are being developed, selling at higher prices, and those necessarily higher rental fees are putting strains on affordable beds." The friendly skies have long since turned ugly and they're not getting any nicer. "The traditional legacy carriers may not survive, at least in their current forms. United and Continental, and Delta and Northwest may well merge during the short-term time frame and these mergers have not shown to benefit the consumer." The U.S. Airways-America West merger a few years ago is a case in point. There are already fuel price supplements, extra baggage charges, and extra costs for a few inches of leg room. Even a few stale pretzels are hard to come by without shelling out $4. Driving to resorts, of course, is threatened by soon-to-be-$4 or more per gallon pump prices and even the "easy-to-get-to" resorts along I-70 in Colorado, I-80 to Tahoe, I-93 in New England, and others, will feel that impact. Then, there are the issues of how mountain resort sales and marketing teams maneuver their way through the new technology and social networking that marks distribution now and certainly will increase. Skiers are their own marketers today through feedback forums and blogs. What are prognostications worth? Plenty, when it comes to Garrison and this potent panel. Volatility is everywhere - from politics to gas pumps, from hot and cold beds, and weather to season pass pricing. Garrison hit it on the head: "Yikes." « Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » |
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