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« Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » NSAA Blooms In The Desert This Week - 'A Great 5 Years'By Craig Altschul  The New Millenium of 2000 was not what Mark Twain would refer to as "the best of times." The business climate, notes Ford Frick in a BBC Research & Consulting report (The American Ski Industry - Reasons for Optimism in the 21st Century) issued in March, was anything but hospitable for the American ski industry. "Long perceived as the victim of demographic change, draught, and a fickle baby boom market, prospects for skiing's growth were dismissed long ago," Frick's report suggested. The impetus for the NSAA Model of Growth actually came from having "time to think," laughs Berry who, along with about 1,000 attendees to the National Trade Show and Convention this week at the Fairmont Scottsdale Princess in Arizona, will celebrate the success of the model to date, and further break down its demographics for the next stages. "I came through the resort operations world where there was scarcely time to think," Berry told The Industry Report on the eve of the conference. He had served in management and later CEO positions at Vail, Sun Valley, Keystone, and Kirkwood. "Now, I had an association to run, but not the overwhelming resort CEO responsibilities. I started thinking about why the needle was stuck at 52 million for so long." NSAA asked RRC Associates of Boulder, Colo., to open and look through the next 10-15 year demographic window and "tell us the future." "Nolan Rosall told our board that if we sat on our hands as baby boomers age, many will drop out or certainly ski less, that snowboarding will continue to grow, that we had to take better care of our existing customer base, and that in essence, we were doing a miserable job at the sport's entry level," Berry said. Berry acknowledges that the NSAA's Model for Growth coincided with a goodly amount of serendipity: Snowboarding among "tweenagers" and teens has been building in popularity, telemarking was making a modest comeback, uphill transportation greatly improved, equipment variations for free skiing was bringing back younger skiers, and shaped and even fat skis were making the sport easier, particularly for the aging participant. The industry seemed to be gradually relaxing its rules and participants were beginning to believe again - as filmmaking guru Warren Miller has preached for half a century - it's all about "freedom." So, the NSAA Model for Growth was born. "There have been some really nice changes," Berry says. "We know the vast majority of those entering the sport did so close to home. They were brought by friends, families, schools, and churches. If they were living in Cleveland, for example, they simply went to Boston Mills to start, not to the big destinations. We didn't do the job with their first-time experience." That's changed. It began with equipment. Some of the smaller areas - where most newcomers were entering - were forced by economics to keep rental equipment that was often many years old. Rental gear needs to be cycled every three or four years. "Now there's a buying pool in the Midwest that's solving that problem," Berry said. He said the industry has made many moves over the first five years to improve the customer experience at resorts. The industry seems to have held onto baby boomers by providing wider skis that are easy to manipulate, improved grooming, and more comfortable opportunities for lunch away from the madding crowds. That was combined with the incredible lure of mountain real estate now that they could afford it. Ski schools were part of the change. They became less expensive and more accommodating. Lessons among children climbed by 12 percent from the 2000-2001 season through the 2003-2004 season. The BBC report notes that "the entire sport became more accepting of new participants." Small areas - the feeders to the destinations - had struggled through the nineties. The model spurred them to embrace the new markets, focus on the entry level skiers and snowboarders, emphasize convenience and value, and reward loyalty. It turned out the ski industry wasn't dead or dying at all. It apparently needed a "spurring on" by NSAA and the right alignment of the stars. All it takes is a review of the numbers: This season's count will come in at about 56.1 million skier days, third best all-time showing. It possibly would have set a new mark had not the Pacific Northwest experienced a severe drought that shut down many ski areas for several weeks at peak times. Berry estimates the net loss - not including those who went off to other destination regions - to be at about 1.5 million. One of the biggest surprises - written off by numerous observers as an anomaly - was the record setting season of the turn of the new century, 2000-2001, when 57.3 million skiers days were logged (a jump of over 5 million). The fact that the industry recorded 54.4 skier days in 2001-02 was nothing short of amazing - considering the terrorist attacks of 9/11 during a peak reservation time and the downturn in the economy that followed. It, perhaps more than any other factor, proved the value of recreation and family participation in sports. "Weather events will always play a role in our total numbers," Berry acknowledges. "That's why I don't put much stock on whether it was a record year or not. This time it was the Northwest, but it could be another region next season. The key thing is we're now seeing constant growth across the board. It was as good a five years as it could get." The next steps in the model will begin this week in the desert, not the mountains. "The challenges still remain five years later, but the industry now has a much more sophisticated understanding of what interventions and methods are most effective in overcoming them," he says. A key session at the NSAA Convention this week will be a review of progress made in Model of Growth to date, and a new measurement of each region's unique trial, conversion, and retention dynamics. RRC will present new demographic data looking out the next 15 years, along with visitation and revenue forecasts. "As more and more ski areas listen to their customer, they can look at the metrics that make them decide where to ski. If we can push another 50 areas to the growth side, it would have an enormous effect," Berry said. BBC's Frick puts it like this in his report: "Even a modest level of national market growth results in large increases in skier visits. A one percent per year national growth rate requires the equivalent of a new Killington Ski Area every two years." This week the ski industry is blooming in the desert. « Previous Story | The Industry Report Home Page | Next Story » |
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